POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (2024)

Home Public Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

Español: Aviso Publico Discusión

Wind SpeedProbabilitiesArrival Timeof WindsWindHistoryWarnings/ConeInteractive MapPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (5)
Warnings/Cone
Static Images
Warnings andSurface Wind

Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Forecast Length* Forecast Track Line Initial Wind Field



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (7)

* If the storm is forecast to dissipate within 3 days, the "Full Forecast" and "3 day" graphic will be identical

Click Here for a 5-day Cone Printer Friendly Graphic

How to use the cone graphic (video):

About this product:

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink),tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). The orange circle indicates the current position of thecenter of the tropical cyclone. The black line, when selected, and dots show the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast track of the centerat the times indicated. The dot indicating the forecast center location will be black if the cyclone is forecast to betropical and will be white with a black outline if the cyclone is forecast to be extratropical. If only an L is displayed,then the system is forecast to be a remnant low. The letter inside the dot indicates the NHC's forecast intensity for that time:

D: Tropical Depression – wind speed less than 39 MPH
S: Tropical Storm – wind speed between 39 MPH and 73 MPH
H: Hurricane – wind speed between 74 MPH and 110 MPH
M: Major Hurricane – wind speed greater than 110 MPH

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecastuncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid whiteand stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depictsthe track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while thestippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical dataindicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropicalcyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. Toform the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along theforecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions,where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of theprevious five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formedby smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

It is also important to realize that a tropical cyclone is not a point. Theireffects can span many hundreds of miles from the center. The areaexperiencing hurricane force (one-minute average wind speeds of at least74 mph) and tropical storm force (one-minute average wind speeds of39-73 mph) winds can extend well beyond the white areas shown enclosingthe most likely track area of the center. The distribution of hurricaneand tropical storm force winds in this tropical cyclone can be seen inthe Wind History graphic linked above.

Considering the combined forecast uncertainties in track, intensity, and size, thechances that any particular location will experience winds of 34 kt (tropical storm force),50 kt, or 64 kt (hurricane force) from this tropical cyclone are presented intabular form for selected locations and forecast positions. This information is also presented ingraphical form for the 34 kt, 50 kt,and 64 kt thresholds.

Note: A detailed definition of the NHC track forecast cone is also available.

Quick Links and Additional Resources

Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Tropical Cyclone Advisories
Tropical Weather Outlook
Audio/Podcasts
About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Offshore Waters Forecasts
Gridded Forecasts
Graphicast
About Marine

Social Media
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: "Inside the Eye"

Hurricane Preparedness
Preparedness Guide
Hurricane Hazards
Watches and Warnings
Marine Safety
Ready.gov Hurricanes | en Español
Weather-Ready Nation
Emergency Management Offices

Research and Development
NOAA Hurricane Research Division
Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT)
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program

Other Resources

NHC/AOML Library Branch
NOAA: Hurricane FAQs
National Hurricane Operations Plan
WX4NHC Amateur Radio

NWS Forecast Offices
Weather Prediction Center
Storm Prediction Center
Ocean Prediction Center
Local Forecast Offices

Worldwide Tropical Cyclone Centers
Canadian Hurricane Centre
Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Other Tropical Cyclone Centers
WMO Severe Weather Info Centre

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (13)

US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, FL, 33165
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov

Central Pacific Hurricane Center
2525 Correa Rd
Suite 250
Honolulu, HI 96822
W-HFO.webmaster@noaa.gov

Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary

Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC (2024)

References

Top Articles
Latest Posts
Recommended Articles
Article information

Author: Rubie Ullrich

Last Updated:

Views: 5449

Rating: 4.1 / 5 (72 voted)

Reviews: 95% of readers found this page helpful

Author information

Name: Rubie Ullrich

Birthday: 1998-02-02

Address: 743 Stoltenberg Center, Genovevaville, NJ 59925-3119

Phone: +2202978377583

Job: Administration Engineer

Hobby: Surfing, Sailing, Listening to music, Web surfing, Kitesurfing, Geocaching, Backpacking

Introduction: My name is Rubie Ullrich, I am a enthusiastic, perfect, tender, vivacious, talented, famous, delightful person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.